Generated Title: Upstart's AI Hype Train: Or Just Another Overvalued Lender?
Alright, let's get real about Upstart (UPST). This whole "AI lending marketplace" spiel? Give me a break. Every company slaps "AI" on their forehead these days, hoping the nvda stock bros will pump their bags. Upstart ain't special.
The Numbers Game
So, upst stock price took a hit after their Q3 earnings. Surprise, surprise. They missed revenue estimates – $277.11M versus the expected $285.22M. Down 2.8%. Ouch. But hey, loan originations were up 80%! $2.9 billion. See? Growth! Except...
Except operating cash flow went negative. -$256.28M. Free cash flow? -$270.58M. Uh oh. That's not exactly the kind of "AI disruption" I was promised. It's more like a financial black hole. How are they gonna keep funding this "rapid growth" when they're hemorrhaging cash?
Then, there's the CEO, Dave Girouard, yapping about their "AI platform performing exactly as designed." Yeah, right. "Adapting to evolving macro signals." Translation: jacking up interest rates on desperate people while pretending to be some kind of tech savior.
Is It Just Hype?
They keep touting that "over 90% of loans processed through the platform are now fully automated." Cool. So, robots are deciding who gets screwed over with high-interest debt now. Progress!
And get this – the analyst community is still mostly bullish. Average price target of $77.57? Are these people smoking crack? The stock's currently around $46. I mean, maybe I'm missing something. Maybe there's some secret sauce in that AI algorithm that's gonna unlock infinite profits. But color me skeptical.
Speaking of algorithms... I swear, every time I see an ad for some "AI-powered" product, I get another gray hair. It's like back in the dot-com bubble when every company just added ".com" to its name and instantly became worth billions. Remember Pets.com? Yeah, that's where we're headed with this AI nonsense.
They're trying to be the next nvda, but they're just another lender, hoping to cash in on the AI craze.
The Long-Term Gamble
Okay, Upstart is projecting full-year 2025 revenue of $1.035 billion. Adjusted EBITDA of $63 million for Q4. Contribution margin of 53%. Those numbers sound good, right? But let's be real: projections are just fancy guesses. Especially in this economy.
The article I read said that "buying Upstart stock today could set you up for life." Uh-huh. And buying lottery tickets could make you a billionaire. Both are equally likely. Prediction: Buying Upstart Stock Today Could Set You Up for Life.
One thing's for sure: upst stock price today is volatile. If you're the kind of person who gets heart palpitations watching the stock ticker, stay far, far away from this one. You'll end up in an early grave.
So, What's the Real Story?
It's all smoke and mirrors. Upstart is trying to sell itself as a tech company when it's just a lender with a slightly fancier algorithm. It might make some people rich, but it's more likely to leave a lot of bagholders crying in their beer. Ain't touching this one with a ten-foot pole.
