Generated Title: Iren's $9.7B Nvidia Deal: Genius or Just Another Brick in the AI Hype Wall?
Alright, let's dissect this Iren-Microsoft-Nvidia triangle that's got everyone buzzing. Iren, a data center company, is up 22% after inking a deal to give Microsoft access to Nvidia's GB300 GPUs for a cool $9.7 billion over five years. On the surface, it’s a win-win-win. But let's pull back the curtain a bit.
The Nvidia Effect: A Rising Tide?
The knee-jerk reaction is to paint this as a boon for everyone in the semiconductor space. Nvidia itself jumped nearly 2%, and Micron and AMD saw bumps of 4% and 1%, respectively. The narrative is simple: Iren's massive GPU commitment signals sustained, ravenous demand for AI infrastructure. And that's partly true. But this kind of broad-stroke enthusiasm can be misleading. Are we really seeing a rising tide lifting all boats, or just a few yachts getting a disproportionate boost while the rest bob along?
ON Semiconductor, for instance, added more than 3% after beating earnings estimates. While that's good news for ON, attributing it solely to the Iren-Nvidia deal is a stretch. Their adjusted earnings were 63 cents per share on revenue of $1.55 billion, exceeding FactSet analyst estimates of 59 cents and $1.52 billion. Solid performance, but not necessarily tied directly to AI chip demand. It's more likely that ON is benefiting from broader trends in automotive and industrial applications.
Then there's Cisco, up just over 1% after UBS upgraded it to "buy." The rationale? A "multi-year growth cycle driven by AI infrastructure demand." Okay, fair enough. But Cisco also cites a campus refresh cycle and security momentum. Again, AI is part of the story, but not the whole damn book.
Kenvue's Acquisition: A Distraction?
While the AI sector parties, Kenvue, the Tylenol and Band-Aid maker, rallied 20% on news of a $48.7 billion acquisition by Kimberly-Clark. This deal, expected to close in the second half of 2026, has absolutely nothing to do with GPUs or data centers. It's a classic consumer staples play. Yet, it's getting lumped into the same "stocks making the biggest moves" headlines. Why? Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Iren, Kenvue, Cipher Mining, New Gold and more
It's like throwing a birthday party and having your neighbor's garage sale steal some of the attention. The AI hype is so deafening that even unrelated news gets filtered through the AI lens. I've looked at hundreds of these market reports, and this level of thematic distortion is unusual.
Cipher Mining: A Narrower Loss, But a Missed Target
Cipher Mining, a data center developer focused on Bitcoin mining and AI, surged 17% after reporting a narrower-than-expected loss of 1 cent per share (analysts expected a 4-cent loss). Revenue, however, missed estimates: $71.7 million versus the $77.8 million consensus. So, they lost less money, but also made less money. Is that really a cause for celebration?
The market seems to be rewarding Cipher for managing its losses, which is understandable given the capital-intensive nature of the data center business. But let's not forget that they still lost money. And the revenue miss suggests that their growth trajectory isn't quite as smooth as the stock price jump implies.
Amazon's Cloud Bet: The Real Underdog?
Amazon's stock jumped about 4.4% after OpenAI signed a $38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services (AWS). And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely interesting. While everyone's fixated on Nvidia's hardware, Amazon is quietly positioning itself as the infrastructure backbone of the AI revolution. They're not just selling shovels in the gold rush; they're building the entire damn mining operation.
But it's also worth asking: How much of this AWS deal is already priced into Amazon's valuation? Has the market fully appreciated the scale of Amazon's cloud dominance in the AI era, or is there still room to run? Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Amazon, Adeia, Kenvue, Iren & more
So, Where's the Real Alpha?
The Iren deal is undoubtedly significant. It validates the demand for high-powered GPUs and signals a continued arms race in AI infrastructure. But the market's reaction is, as usual, oversimplified. Not every semiconductor company is directly benefiting, and unrelated news is getting swept up in the AI narrative. The real alpha, in my opinion, lies in identifying the companies that are building the foundations of the AI revolution, not just riding the wave of hype. Amazon, with its AWS dominance, might just be the smartest play of them all.
