The Mirage of '25: No Checks, Just Smoke and Mirrors
The internet's buzzing again with whispers of stimulus checks, tariff refunds, and surprise IRS deposits for 2025. Let's cut through the noise: official channels—the IRS, Congressional announcements—are silent. Those social media posts promising $1,702 or $200 windfalls? False. Flat out. Is a $1,702 stimulus check coming? Latest news on claims of 2025 payments - azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic
Now, before you fire off an angry email, some states are offering inflation relief or rebate checks. New York, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Colorado – they're all in the game, but the amounts and eligibility vary wildly based on income and sales tax paid. Don't expect a windfall; think of it as a minor course correction.
JPMorgan Asset Management's chief strategist, David Kelly, throws a curveball into the mix. He's predicting a surge in tax refunds in 2026, all thanks to the retroactive implementation of Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), slated to take effect January 1, 2025. The IRS isn't adjusting withholding rates this year, which, according to Kelly's model, sets the stage for bigger refunds next year. A tax-refund surge is coming, JPMorgan strategist says — and it’ll shift US economy like a new round of stimulus checks - Yahoo Finance
The OBBBA Effect: A Closer Look
Kelly estimates the average tax refund in 2026 could jump to $3,743. That's $557 more than the $3,186 average we saw last year. That’s a jump of 17.5% (to be more exact). The OBBBA includes some key provisions: a $6,000 deduction for taxpayers over 65 (phasing out at higher income levels) and a deduction for qualified tips for employees and the self-employed. The Child Tax Credit also gets a bump, from $2,000 to $2,200, adjusted for inflation.
But here's where things get interesting. Kelly's prediction hinges on the OBBBA's full implementation. Given the current federal government shutdown (as of October 1, 2025), how confident can we really be in smooth execution? Government shutdowns cause disruptions (obviously). Will that impact the IRS's ability to process returns efficiently and on time? Details on the potential impact of the shutdown on tax refunds are scarce, but the possibility of delays shouldn't be discounted.
Earlier chatter about a DOGE dividend (funded by cutting other departments) or using Trump's tariff revenue for rebates? All vaporware. Sen. Hawley's American Worker Rebate Act and Rep. Khanna's $2,000 stimulus check proposal? Both seem to have stalled. These proposals, like many in Washington, are designed to attract eyeballs, not to become law.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling: the disconnect between the promise of relief and the reality of inaction. Is it political posturing? A genuine lack of consensus? Or simply the inertia of a massive bureaucracy? The data points to a combination of all three.
It's crucial to remember that correlation isn't causation. Just because Kelly predicts larger refunds doesn't guarantee it. His model is based on assumptions about the OBBBA's impact, and those assumptions could be wrong. For instance, the $6,000 deduction for taxpayers over 65 phases out for single filers with income exceeding $175,000 or joint filers with income exceeding $250,000. How will that impact the actual average refund?
Don't Bank on It (Yet)
The bottom line: be wary of stimulus check hype. Focus on the concrete – understand your state's rebate programs and factor in the potential impact of the OBBBA. But don't count your chickens before they hatch.
```
Reality Check
```
Kelly's prediction is a decent estimate, but it's still just that: an estimate. Place your bets accordingly.
```