Alright, let's unpack this Trump-CZ pardon situation. The headlines are screaming about Trump claiming ignorance of Changpeng Zhao, the Binance co-founder he pardoned. "I don't know who he is," Trump said on 60 Minutes. Right.
The Numbers Game: Ignorance or Calculated Risk?
Let's look at the data points. Zhao pleaded guilty to enabling money laundering. Binance remains the biggest crypto exchange. Trump pardoned him. Then claimed ignorance. The White House Press Secretary called it a correction of Biden's "war on cryptocurrency." (A phrase that sounds like it was pulled directly from a crypto bro's fever dream.)
Here's the problem: claiming ignorance doesn't square with the other connections. Zhao's companies partnered with firms linked to Trump, including Dominari Holdings, where Trump's sons sit on the board. The Trump administration previously halted a fraud case against crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun, after his investments in the Trump family's crypto firm. The connections are there.
So, either Trump is genuinely detached from his family's business dealings – which, given his history, seems unlikely – or he's betting that plausible deniability will shield him from scrutiny. It's a calculated risk. He throws a bone to the crypto community, who see Zhao as a martyr, while maintaining he had no idea who he was helping.
The question is, does that calculation hold up?
It's also worth noting that Trump has pardoned other figures in the crypto world, including founders of the crypto exchange BitMEX and Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road (the dark web marketplace known as a place for drug trade). A pattern emerges: a willingness to intervene on behalf of individuals involved in the crypto space, regardless of their alleged crimes.
The pardon lifts restrictions that had stopped Zhao from running financial ventures. The press secretary said the prosecution was part of a "war on cryptocurrency," pushing back on critics who said the pardon appeared motivated by Trump's personal financial interests.
Data Void: What We Don't Know
Here's where the data gets thin. Details on the internal deliberations leading to the pardon are scarce. We don't know who specifically advised Trump on this decision, or what information they presented. Karoline Leavitt said the case had been "thoroughly reviewed," but we have no access to that review. This lack of transparency is a feature, not a bug, of these kinds of pardons. It creates a fog of uncertainty that makes it harder to assess the true motivations.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling: the sheer audacity of claiming ignorance. Most politicians would at least offer a vague justification, citing the need for leniency or the possibility of rehabilitation. Trump's blunt denial is almost… refreshing? Or maybe it's just a sign of how little he cares about appearances anymore.
Meanwhile, the broader crypto market is facing headwinds. Bitcoin fell below $108,000 as investors tempered hopes for deeper rate cuts. Asia Market Open: Bitcoin Slips Below $108K As Investors Temper Hopes For Deeper Rate Cuts Liquidity was thinner than usual with Tokyo shut for a holiday, which amplified intraday swings during early Asia hours. The market instead focused on rates, the dollar and positioning.
The market is experiencing a healthy deleveraging phase. Bitcoin’s realized cap is above $1.1 trillion and stable on-chain activity indicate enduring structural strength ahead of a historically bullish November.
The Data Doesn't Support Ignorance
The numbers, the connections, the previous pardons—they all point to a deliberate strategy. Whether that strategy is financially motivated, politically calculated, or simply a reflection of Trump's contrarian nature is open to debate. But claiming ignorance? That's an insult to anyone who can read a balance sheet.
